NFL 2012 Consensus Mock Draft Round 1 (Picks 1-16)
Drafttek.com uses a computer model to simulate a 7-round 2012 NFL Mock Draft. Each team has an analyst who supplies data on 2012 NFL Draft team needs. The team needs are matched up against a list of 2012 NFL Draft prospect rankings (aka "Big Board") in order to generate each selection in our 2012 NFL Mock Draft.
2012 CMD #3 (7 Rounds)
February 22, 2012
Next Consensus Mock Draft February 29
Drafttek.com has been serving up a series of polls over on the Home Page. The latest asks readers who they think the Carolina Panthers will select with the #9 overall pick. 6 options are provided, based upon the Panthers presumed positional needs, and also a set of players who could/should still be available.
Readers are closely split among 3 players - DE Quinton Coples, DT Micheal Brockers and WR Michael Floyd. However, in our most recent mock (below), Coples was selected 1 pick earlier by Miami. But Brockers and Floyd are still on the map.
Who does the DRAFTSIM model select for Carolina in Consensus Mock Draft #3?? None of the above three! It's anybody's guess now, but we'll be paying close attention to the NFL Combine this week (February 22-28) for clarification on the primary candidates.
| 1 | Indianapolis |
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Andrew Luck Stanford QB Reach/Value: +0 |
Height: 6'4" Weight: 235 |
Alternate Pick #1 Morris Claiborne Alternate Pick #2 Matt Kalil |
| As speculation runs amok all over the football universe with regards to Peyton Manning's surgeries and potential recovery, one other sidebar not has slowly emerged. There are several reports that have Indianapolis seriously considering the prospect of going with Baylor QB Robert Griffin III, rather than going with the prospect most consider the likely pick for the Colts. While RG3 is certainly an intriguing option, it's likely only subterfuge aimed at getting others to spend time calculating revised Big Boards. Indy knows it needs a Manning-like backup IF Peyton returns to the Colts, and Luck is as close to being a viable Manning clone as we've seen in recent years. However, if the Colts new philosophy in a post-Manning era includes a bigger emphasis on defense, then a run-oriented, mobile QB offense is perhaps the thought process here. I'll stick with Luck for now, at least until we see if #18 is in the Shoe again next season. Rick McGlothlin, Colts analyst. |
| 2 | St Louis |
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Matt Kalil USC LOT Reach/Value: +0 |
Height: 6'6" Weight: 295 |
Alternate Pick #1 Morris Claiborne Alternate Pick #2 Justin Blackmon |
| This pick, or the trading of it, will define the Rams new regime at least in the short term. Opinions abound as to what would be best for the team over the long haul. I still believe the best choice, barring a Ricky Williams/Herschel Walker-like offer, is keeping the pick and drafting Matt Kalil. Kalil is the best left tackle in the draft and the Rams gave up 55 sacks last season with injuries and poor play plaguing the team all season. The pick would allow versatility and depth on a line that needs more than just one guy. Kalil could start at left tackle, Saffold could move back to right tackle, Jason Smith could move inside to guard leaving the Rams choices to fill the wholes (currently Jacob Bell and Jason Brown). The Rams have over $50 million in cap room with 21 unrestricted free agents in the biggest pool in NFL history. The possibilities are endless but it all starts with protecting your franchise. Matt Kalil is the man for the job. - Robert Occhipinti, Rams Drafttek Analyst. |
| 3 | Minnesota |
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Morris Claiborne LSU CB Reach/Value: -1 |
Height: 6'0" Weight: 178 |
Alternate Pick #1 Justin Blackmon Alternate Pick #2 Riley Reiff |
| For those questioning the selection Claiborne over Blackmon, here is a series of stats that I think paint a very vivid picture of where the need lies. The Vikings D gave up 251.2 yards/game last year, which was good for 26th overall, despite only 538 attempts, which is the lowest number (by 51) of any of the teams below them. They also allowed opposing QBs to complete 68.2% of their passes (31st in the league), while only managing 8 interceptions. They also finished tied for 1st in sacks with 50. In short, despite one of the best pass rushes in the league, which is a DBs best friend, the Vikings couldn't stop anybody. Meanwhile, with a rookie QB and a sub-par OL, the offense was still 19th in points per game, finishing ahead of two playoff teams. Obviously, the need is on D and with the defensive line being one of the best in the league, the focus falls on the secondary where Morris Claiborne provides an instant upgrade with All-Pro potential. - Brett Stott, Vikings Team Analyst |
| 4 | Cleveland |
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Robert Griffin Baylor QB Reach/Value: -3 |
Height: 6'2" Weight: 220 |
Alternate Pick #1 Justin Blackmon Alternate Pick #2 Riley Reiff |
| Browns fans should take the time to see what others are saying about Robert Griffin III. In the interest of gaining better informed opinions, I will offer some links where I have found excellent analysis, or well balanced views. First, we have Waiting For Next Year's breakdown of the RG3 situation here. Then, there's this from Jamison Hensley of ESPN. Joe Fortenbaugh over at Yahoo Sports offers his entertaining look at the draft. It's no surprise that Bleacher Report features new RG3 content on a daily basis along with some spirited discussion. Per ESPN's SportsCenter the latest news on RG3 is that he probably won't throw at the NFL combine, but will concentrate on team interviews, the 40 yard dash, and other non-throwing skills. Griffin's Pro Day has been moved up by one day to avoid a scheduling conflict with Andrew Luck. That video and article appear here. ~Mike Sudds, DraftTek Browns analyst |
| 5 | Tampa Bay |
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Trent Richardson Alabama RBF Reach/Value: +2 |
Height: 5'11" Weight: 224 |
Alternate Pick #1 Luke Kuechly Alternate Pick #2 Riley Reiff |
| In a recent Drafttek poll, readers picked WR Justin Blackmon as the player most likely to be chosen by the Bucs if Morris Claiborne is off the board. We disagree with that pick, but don't be surprised if we mock Blackmon to the Bucs in an upcoming CMD. Trent Richardson and Justin Blackmon are both elite "difference makers" at their respective positions. But in reviewing the Bucs WR corps, they possess a harem of young talent. Greg Schiano hopes Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams will shake off the "sophomore jinx" and re-emerge as 3rd year players. The RB position, OTOH, is more desperate. Starter LaGarrette Blount was benched late in the season. Behind Blount is just oft-injured Earnest Graham. Richardson is an incredible talent - he's just as comfortable powering through defenses as he is using speed and elusiveness. Unlike Blount, he'll catch the ball out of the backfield. Here's Richardson's Bio from RollTide.com, and a vid showing his weight room fanaticism . |
| 6 | Washington |
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Justin Blackmon Oklahoma State WRF Reach/Value: +1 |
Height: 6'1" Weight: 212 |
Alternate Pick #1 Riley Reiff Alternate Pick #2 Michael Floyd |
| The Washington Redskins weigh in with $49m in cap room this offseason. Though they have been known for splash-signings in the past, the Redskins have been very smart since the Shanahans arrived in DC (well, besides that whole McNabb thing). I do think, however, the Skins will look to sign at least one top interior offensive lineman and will attempt to sign a corner in free agency that is more consistent than DeAngelo Hall. They may also look for a big-bodied wide receiver, but in this case, they pass on the WRs in free agency and land the cream of the 2012 crop in Justin Blackmon. In Blackmon, the Redskins land a tough, physical WR with an NFL-ready body. He has been very consistent and has held up well as far as injuries are concerned. His 40-time will make a difference this week, and if he runs sub 4.5, he will start to receive AJ Green-type hype leading up to the draft. -KC Paynter, Redskins Draft Analyst |
| 7 | Jacksonville |
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Riley Reiff Iowa ROT Reach/Value: +1 |
Height: 6'6 Weight: 300 |
Alternate Pick #1 Michael Floyd Alternate Pick #2 Whitney Mercilus |
| For the 2nd consecutive week the CMD selects the 2-time all-Big 10 LT Riley Reiff. I know this pick may not sit well with most Jag fans since the WR position is their most glaring need. However, if Blaine Gabbert is to achieve any type of success, they must first solidify the O-line. The Jags allowed 44 sacks last season, which was 8th worst in the NFL. Most sacks came from the right side. Jacksonville has a need at the RT spot since Eben Britton can't stay healthy - only playing in 4 games last season, and missing 21 games in the past 2 seasons. Guy Whimper started at the position for 15 games but is best suited to be a backup. He's also a free agent and most likely will not be resigned. Two of Riley Reiff's best attributes are what's missing at the position. The Iowa standout is very durable, he started all 13 games at LT. He's also versatile, playing both guard and tackle but projects to be a RT in the NFL. Reiff is a solid pick, value meets need! Darrol F Beamon |
| 8 | Miami |
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Quinton Coples North Carolina DE43 Reach/Value: +0 |
Height: 6'6" Weight: 285 |
Alternate Pick #1 Mike Adams Alternate Pick #2 Whitney Mercilus |
| The Jags take Reiff for the 2nd straight sim allowing Miami to make the logical pick of the former Tar Heels star, who tore it up at the Senior Bowl. He looks the part of a Top 10, athletic freak. He has the necessary speed and disruptive force to wreak havoc in the backfield (40.5 TFLs, 24 sacks in career at UNC). However, he's also an anchor on the outside of the DL. Coples is an excellent run defender, something that would work perfectly with Wake on the other side. Of course keep an eye on South Carolina 'tweener Melvin Ingram. He's not as big as Coples, but is a better pure pass rusher. His stock will continue to climb as the draft approaches. His versatility (able to play DE in 4-3, OLB in 3-4) is an added bonus for teams that my institute a hybrid defensive game plan, such as Miami. - Joe Mays, DraftTek Analyst |
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| 9 | Carolina |
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Devon Still Penn State DT43 Reach/Value: -1 |
Height: 6'4" Weight: 305 |
Alternate Pick #1 Michael Floyd Alternate Pick #2 Fletcher Cox |
| As we move toward the NFL Scouting Combine, the defensive tackle crop this year will sort itself out. Whoever comes out on top, the Panthers need to make a move. Signing Charles Johnson (DE) to a massive six-year, $76 million deal didn't help the defense much in 2011. Carolina was 24th in passing defense and 25th in sacks. The best way to help a defensive end is either to bracket him with another stud defensive, or the latest craze is to put a stud defensive tackle next to him. The Panthers already have a young defensive end prospect in Greg Hardy, meanwhile next to Johnson, it's a whole lot of nothing. Terrell McClain played the most, posting a -17.3 rating in 480 snaps according to Pro Football Focus. After that, Sione Fua was slightly better at -6.6 in 408 snaps.--Mike Schottey, DraftTek Analyst |
| 10 | Buffalo |
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Whitney Mercilus Illinois DE43 Reach/Value: -7 |
Height: 6'3" Weight: 262 |
Alternate Pick #1 Zach Brown Alternate Pick #2 Andre Branch |
| I locked out WR Floyd to see who the Bills would get as their much-needed pass rusher. At first I was disappointed. You've heard the knock on Mercilus: Big Ten, one year wonder, blah blah blah. Let's hope Mercilus can match the first Big Ten DE from last year's RD1 in PFF's Plus Ratings -- J.J. Watt (14 of 16 games), who was picked at #11. Other first rounders from the conference were half good, but picked lower in the round: Ryan Kerrigan (8 of 16) at #16, Adrian Clayborn (7 of 16) at #20, and Ohio State's Heyward (8 of 16) at #31. Why not go after Mario Williams? Well, Mario played 12 games in 2005, logging 62 tackles, 24 of them for loss, and 14.5 sacks. Mercilus played in 13 games, and made 57 tackles with 22.5 TFL (#2 in NCAA history). His 16 sacks led the BCS, tying another Big Ten DE, Simeon Rice. His 9 forced fumbles was the second-highest single-season total in NCAA history. I could talk myself into Mercilus if he were the pick for the Bills. - Dean Kindig, Bills Analyst |
| 11 | Seattle |
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Courtney Upshaw Alabama DE43 Reach/Value: +0 |
Height: 6'2 Weight: 268 |
Alternate Pick #1 Luke Kuechly Alternate Pick #2 Peter Konz |
| While the top QB talent will be long gone by the time the Hawks are on the clock, there will almost assuredly be a number of talented pass rushers still available. If he manages to make it past the Bills, Courtney Upshaw would be an absolute steal here and give the Hawks pass rush a much needed shot in the arm. Upshaw possesses all the necessary skills one could hope to find in a player and borrowing a term from Baseball, he is what a scout would refer to as a "5-tools" kind of guy. The man is simply as good an all-around prospect as you will find in the 2012 draft and his intangibles (effort and instincts) are just icing on the cake. Upshaw would primarily be used opposite Clemons on the line and likely see time at linebacker where he would provide some much needed depth and size. For an even more in-depth look at what Upshaw would bring to the CLink, I recommend checking out Rob Staton's writeup on the man over at SeahawksDraftBlog.com |
| 12 | Kansas City |
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Mike Adams Ohio State ROT Reach/Value: -3 |
Height: 6'6" Weight: 320 |
Alternate Pick #1 Jonathan Martin Alternate Pick #2 Luke Kuechly |
| The sim has been bouncing among tackles Reiff, Martin and Mike Adams. Recently, it seems to be settling on Mike Adams. Offensive tackle is the most likely pick for the Chiefs in round one. The Chiefs need two new players on the offensive line. Barry Richardson is a poor starting tackle and Ryan Lilja is too light to handle large defensive tackles. At 6' 8" 320 lbs, Adams has the frame to play either tackle position in the NFL. His footwork is very good, though he can get lost in space when zone blocking. He showed very well at the Senior Bowl and appears to have overcome his off the field issues at Ohio State. He has prototypical size and strength for a NFL caliber left tackle. As a rookie, he would probably displace Barry Richardson at right tackle. With good development, he could challenge Branden Albert for the left tackle job, moving Albert to left guard. With this move, the Chiefs add another high quality offensive lineman to go with Branden Albert, Rodney Hudson and Jon Asamoah. |
| 13 | Arizona |
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Jonathan Martin Stanford LOT Reach/Value: -6 |
Height: 6'6" Weight: 305 |
Alternate Pick #1 Dre Kirkpatrick Alternate Pick #2 Peter Konz |
| As we've been saying since we started doing CMDs for this year, Arizona absolutely must take the best offensive lineman available here. Levi Brown has proven that he wasn't worth the fifth overall selection in 2007 as he's simply not a starting caliber left tackle. In addition, he's set to have an $18 million cap number and is sure to be cut. Starting RT, Brandon Keith, is a free agent that is doubtful to return. If the Cardinals are going to lure Peyton Manning, they'll be wise to show him they can protect him. Martin would give them one starting tackle and they'll probably bring Levi back on the cheap to play right tackle, where he's proven he can play in the past. Martin has spent the last couple years protecting Andrew Luck's blindside and is a fine prospect despite being the 4th best OT. -Eugene Stasak Gino's Draft Talk |
| 14 | Dallas |
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Dre Kirkpatrick Alabama CB Reach/Value: +0 |
Height: 6'2" Weight: 192 |
Alternate Pick #1 Luke Kuechly Alternate Pick #2 Janoris Jenkins |
| After taking a flyer on OC Peter Konz last week, Old Long Ball removed all "Grabs" and decided to take a more value-oriented approach . . . guess who's back? HC Jason Garrett has echoed Cuzzin Jerruh's previous comments about filling needs in free agency and drafting BPA's. Even though Dallas has some money to spend under the cap, their availability is less than 1/3 of the amount that Tampa Bay has to spend. Kirkpatrick is the total package in pass coverage and also brings size, tackling and run support, attributes not seen at the CB position in Dallas for some time. It is unlikely the Cowboys will keep Terence Newman in 2012, at the age of 34, with an $8 million price tag. Dallas was 23rd in the league in passing yards allowed, and Pro Football Focus gave their pass coverage a negative 36.6. PFF ranked Mike Jenkins as their best CB (#40 overall), Alan Ball and Orlando Scandrick came in at #82 and #83 respectively, and Terence Newman ranked #97 . . . out of a total of 109 CB's! |
| 15 | Philadelphia |
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Luke Kuechly Boston College SILB Reach/Value: +6 |
Height: 6'2" Weight: 235 |
Alternate Pick #1 Michael Floyd Alternate Pick #2 Zach Brown |
| Is a consensus starting to emerge? We've now had Kuechly land in Philly 3 sims in a row, something I believe would make fans VERY happy. It's hard to argue against an elite LB, though the Reid Regime has a tendency to wait on selecting LBs until the 3rd round (or later). However, the less than stellar play of Chaney, Matthews, etc. could force the front office to buck trends. None of the Eagle LBs made Pro Football Focus' Top 25 for the 2011 season. While the defense, overall, was strong - they finished 8th in total yards and 10th in passing yards - the rushing defense was merely average (16th). Based on their ranking system, PFF had Philly 22nd against the run in 2011. Enter Kuechly - tackling machine; he averaged 16 tackles per game as a junior, demonstrating superb technique and an innate ability to diagnose plays. He was one of the biggest defensive stars in all of FBS football this past season, earning the Butkus, Lombardi, Lott, and Nagurski awards. - Joe Mays, DraftTek Analyst |
| 16 | NY Jets |
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Melvin Ingram South Carolina OLB34 Reach/Value: -4 |
Height: 6'2" Weight: 271 |
Alternate Pick #1 Michael Floyd Alternate Pick #2 David DeCastro |
| Last week's pick, Courtney Upshaw, has been claimed by the Seattle Seahawks this time out. But the Jets are presented with several useful options here at #16. There's Mark Barron, the top rated Safety. WR Michael Floyd and OG David DeCastro could also be in play. But with Upshaw and RT Mike Adams off the board, most roads lead to Columbia, SC and Melvin Ingram. The Jets pass rush was anemic in 2011 until they signed and resurrected the career of Aaron Maybin. Maybin did quite a bit of damage in just 239 snaps (6 sacks, 16 pressures) in 2011, but he's a situational guy. And an RFA. Bryan Thomas and Jamaal Westerman are also FA's. To summarize - at this point in time the Jets have just Calvin Pace on board at OLB. Ingram is a first team All-American - (Bio) . Arguably the best pure pass rusher in the draft, his 48 tackles is indicative of his run-stopping prowess. Importantly, Ingram is a team leader. Check out his Senior Bowl inteviews - a humble guy with no character baggage. |
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Traded Round 1 Picks: New England gets New Orleans R1 Pick (Mark Ingram) Cincinnati gets Oakland R1 Pick (Carson Palmer) Cleveland gets Atlanta R1 Pick (Julio Jones) |
Forward to Round 1 Picks 17-32 Forward to R2 Picks 33-48 Forward to R2 Picks 49-64 Forward to Round 3 |
