Up until the release of Mock Draft #8 late last night, we’re been using the same version of our draft creation software that was used last season for the 2008 NFL draft.  This software does not have a formal name, but I will refer to it as “SimuDraft” for the purpose of this blog entry.  SimuDraft v2009 will have its debut next week on November 25th - it will be used in generating Consensus Mock Draft #9.

For the past few months we’ve been working on the 2009 version of SimuDraft.  This revision requires each team to be assigned either a “3-4″ or a “4-3″ defense.  You can find the currently assigned defenses here: http://www.drafttek.com/teamother2009.html

On that web page, some teams are identified in a “tweener” capacity (4-3 with some 3-4 packages, etc.) for reference, but for the purposes of SimuDraft v2009, it’s either 3-4 or 4-3.   Teams will select defensive line talent based upon how well those players fit into their plans, so it is necessary to identify players based upon which system they will best fit into.  Some guys really only are suited for 3-4, and others for 4-3.  But there are some players who will fit into both schemes.  So we have prepared a revised Big Board that allows for dual player designations. 

Since the SimuDraft infrastructure was changed to account for these dual-definitions, we took the liberty of further defining the WR and RB players as well.  We’ve identified 3 “types” of WR’s, for which our team correspondents can specify need.  There’s the WRP - a tall or possession receiver for moving the chains or catching TD’s.   There’s WRS - a small, shifty, speedy guy: usually reserved for slot duty.  And finally there is WRF: a full-feature receiver who has the blend of size/speed/routes/hands to work into a starting lineup.   Our intent is that some receivers could have dual designations.

FInally the RB position is sub-divided: RBF is the full-feature guy capable of a full payload of carries.  RBC is the small, quick “Change of Pace” guy who will get 10-12 touches a game, or perhaps 3rd down spot duties.

In future revisions to Simudraft, we’ll look at some other positions to subdivide, but thats it for now.

Then there is the Online Draft Simulator (ODS).  This user-interactive draft engine was developed in the summer by a contracted individual.  Draft Tek staff skills are not suitable for the complicated requirements of web programming.  The ODS is based off of the 2008 version of Simudraft.  Currently, they both produce identical results - assuming that inputs are the same.  Users like that the ODS baselines off of our Consensus model, then they go ahead and do “What-If” simulations by tweaking selection order and Team Need priorities.

We knew going in that at some point the ODS and Consensus Mock Draft would deviate.   Next week, the ODS will continue to operate off of the v2008 logic, but our Consensus Mock Draft will use v2009.

I suspect that users will be requesting that the ODS be upgraded to match the Consensus Mock Draft.  This depends primarily on cash flow from ad sales and to a lesser extent, the availability of our contractor.  Advertising revenue is really suffering with the economy however.  If demand and interest is strong enough, we can attempt to solicit $5-$10 from a PayPal donation campaign in order to fund this venture.

More next week . . .

Rick McGlothlin, Drafttek.com Senior Writer

Well it was another exciting slate of games in the NFL and week eleven gave us a couple of firsts. The Bengals and Eagles played to a tie, which is the first in an NFL game since it last happened on nearly the same day back in 2002. Also, in the storied history of the NFL, today was the first time a game ever ended with a final score of 11-10, as Pittsburgh edges San Diego.

As the season gets close to the games where final playoff placement begins, there were some key games that kept a few clubs in contention for the playoffs, and others close to the top pick in the 2009 draft in New York City next April. Here then are my tentative power rankings prior to Monday Night’s matchup (that really won’t affect the top 10 at all) for week eleven in the NFL.

1.(1) Tennessee (10-0) - Down early and looking as if the first loss was on the horizon, the Titans never panicked and reeled off 21 unanswered points to close out division opponent Jacksonville.

2.(2) NY Giants (9-1) - That was as good a game as I have seen the Giants play since the Super Bowl run. Dominating defense and the offense clicked against one of the NFL’s top defenses.

3.(4) Carolina (8-2) - Struggled with the winless Lions early on, falling behind 10. After that, the Panthers tallied 264 yards rushing and held the Lions at bay to eek out a win in Charlotte.

4. (4) Pittsburgh (7-3) - The Steelers pull one out on the final drive, and unlike last week vs Indy, Big Ben didn’t make any critical mistakes. It sure helped to have Willie Parker back in the lineup as well. Huge props to the defense as well.

5.(7) Tampa Bay (7-3) - Someone please give an award to Jeff Garcia for most relentless and improbable QB’s in NFL history. Getting beat senseless he still makes key plays while the Buc defense cooled off the Vike offense.

6.(7) Indianapolis (6-4) - The Colts couldn’t put away Houston, but the offense looked much, much better than at any point this year. The defense bent alot, but in the end didn’t break when it counted.

7.(8) New England (6-4) - Matt Cassel looked steady at QB, but the Jets have a legend and rode him and a relentless defense to a big win and a division lead.

8.(5) Washington (6-4) - At home against their arch-rivals, the Skins blow a chance to put them away for the season. Instead, they slip into a two-way tie with Dallas for second in the NFC East.

9. (10) Arizona (7-3) - Kurt Warner and the Cardinals keep rolling, though Seattle proved a bigger hurdle than many expected. 395 yards passing for Warner, but some key stops by the defense helped preserve the win.

10.(15) NY Jets (7-3) - J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS ! Brett Favre and the Jets upend New England and take over first place in the wide-open AFC East. New York finds themselves a game in front of both the Patriots and the surprising Dolphins and will host unbeaten Tennessee next.

11.(11) Atlanta (6-4) - The clock struck 12 for the Falcons in this one, although Matt Ryan had Roddy White in the endzone for the game-winner, but it went through White’s hands.

12.(16) Miami (6-4) - Four victories in a row for the Dolphins, as they get a big kick to get over the hump against a Raider ballclub that must really enjoy hanging out in Florida.

13.(13) Dallas (6-4) - On life support, the Cowboys come through with a low-scoring victory on the road vs Washington.

14.(12) Baltimore (6-4) The Ravens and Joe Flacco found out just how far they have yet to go in order to keep pace with an offense like the Giants. Flacco looked like a rookie against the Giants, but kept trying to bring the Ravens back but could not get anything going.

15.(9) Philadelphia (5-5) - Horrible performance for the Eagles and this one will certainly come back to haunt them later in the year….just fortunate it doesn’t count as a loss.

16.(14) Chicago (5-5) - The return of Kyle Orton meant little, as the Bears secondary had little chance of putting the clamps on the Packer passing game. The Bears defense gave up 400+ yards of total offense and had little semblance of a dominating defense.

17.(22) Denver (6-4) - Big win for the Broncos who were able to answer the Falcons offensive machine with points of their own ( from a surprise source - 2 TD’s from Payton Hillis ). Even so, they barely missed being beat on a last-second throw into the endzone.

18.(14) Green Bay (5-5) - Complete drubbing of the Bears will boost the confidence of the Packers, especially considering their defense is so banged up.

19.(18) Minnesota (5-5) - Let one slip away on the road against a tough Buc defense that just wouldn’t let AP get loose enough to make a difference.

20.(17) Buffalo (5-5) I’m not quite sure what’s more incredible: Losing four ballgames in a row; Losing at home to Cleveland; Having your QB toss 3 interceptions in the first QUARTER and still having a chance to win the game. I’m going to have to go with #3.

21.(23) New Orleans (5-5) - The Brees-led offense is putting up some points, but the defense can’t hold anyone. Very productive day for Pierre Thomas, running for 88 total yards and a score.

 22.(21) San Diego (4-6) - The offense seemed like a car on an icy road. Yes, the wheels turn and the motor roars…but the car goes nowhere fast. Defense kept the Chargers on the cusp of pulling this one out.

 23.(22) Jacksonville (4-6) - Pathetic letdown mid-game that allowed the Titans to score 21 unanswered and notch a win on the road.

 24.(24) Houston (3-7) - The return of Sage Rosenfels wasn’t as horrible, but it was still a loss. Steve Slaton had an exceptional game for the Texans.

25.(25) Cleveland (4-6) - The Mighty Quinn leads his team from behind for the go-ahead score for the second time in two weeks. This time, the lead holds up and the Browns get the “W” in Buffalo.

26.(26) San Francisco (3-7) - You could tell a fire is lit under the 49ers, who came out and completely throttled a St. Louis team that has lost its bearings. Frank Gore and Shawn Hill had solid games, each tallying 2 touchdowns.

27.(29) Seattle (2-8) - Almost but not quite enough for the Seahawks, who finally had much of their original offense back in this game. In the end, however, Arizona just had too much .

28.(27) Oakland (2-8) - Helluva an effort by this team on the road against an emerging playoff team. Just think of how good they would be without the dysfunctional leader at the top.

29.(28) St. Louis (2-8) - The Rams played extremely poorly and looked at times like a contender for the number one overall pick in the ‘09 draft.

30.(29) Kansas City (1-9) - Tyler Thigpen and the Chiefs offense left some points on the field, getting inside the Saints 10 yardline on two different occassions, but couldn’t come away with 6 points on either drive.

31.(31) Cincy (1-8-1) - The Bengals force a 13-all tie with NFC East division Philadelphia, missing an opportunity to pull off the upset. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a good game but couldn’t find a connection in OT.

32.(30) Detroit (0-10) It looked as if the Lions would pull off the biggest of upsets this year, but it was only a tease by Detroit, who gave up 31 points the rest of the way. Daunte Culpepper looked like his former self at times, but also like a rusty returning journeyman.

Rick McGlothlin - Drafttek.com Senior Writer

Well gang, there are some great games on tap in Week Eleven of the NFL and I have six that I think will provide some great drama throughout the day, beginning with the resurgent Ravens offense going up against the mighty Giant defense. And of course the traditional throwdown between the Cowboys and the Skins should be a slugfest as well. So getcha popcorn ready, er, that’s a tired line these days.

Just enjoy the day of football at hand and check out the Marquee Matchups below:

Baltimore @ NY Giants

Both defenses are tough and create turnovers, but can the offense of Baltimore put enough points on the board and keep pace with Eli Manning and the usually high-octane Giant offense.

Keys to the Game: Joe Flacco and the running game

Chicago @ Green Bay

Chicago wasted a golden opportunity last week to keep ahold of the top spot all by themselves, but dropped one they could’ve probably won. We’ll find out if Kyle Orton is healed up and can begin leading the Bear offense steadily down the field again. Likewise with Aaron Rodgers, who had missed practices in the past few weeks but participated all week this time around.

Keys to the Game: Turnovers and the running game.

Denver @ Atlanta

The Falcons are the surprise team of the league and have a chance to do the unthinkable - go 7-3 - against the Denver Broncos in Atlanta. The defense for the Broncos has given up quite a bit of yardage, but if Matt Ryan gets too greedy too early, the Broncos could seize the opportunities off potential turnovers and jump out to a commanding lead.

Keys to the Game: The Bronco defense.

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay

Former Norris Division matchup that will directly impact the division races of each respective team. The Bucs need a win to keep pace in the NFC South with Carolina and Atlanta, while the Vikings would like to add a second victory in a row, which would keep them right in the mix in the NFC North.

Keys to the Game: Gus Frerotte

San Diego @ Pittsburgh

Classic battle of high-powered offense of San Diego vs the seemingly immovable defense of Pittsburgh. Two things about that scenario:

1) The Chargers saw how the Colts moved the ball and scored against said Pittsburgh defense last week and

2) Pittsburgh has a good offense of their own, while the SD defense has gone MIA in recent games.

Temperatures in the freezing digits and high winds are expected in Steel Town today, so the passing game might be in flux for both sides.

Keys to the Game: Wind (forcing a ground game plan) and turnovers

Dallas @ Washington

The big game with the long tradition isn’t quite as flashy and important as it was appearing to be a few weeks back. Dallas is in freefall and Skins had a bye week after being crushed by Pittsburgh on Monday Night two weeks ago.

The Redskins edge the Cowboys in Dallas 26-24 in the first matchup, now they will try to seal the deal for the season sweep in D.C.

Keys to the Game: Can Romo and the offense reignite.

Rick McGlothlin/ Drafttek.com Senior Writer

Just past the midway portion of the season and having wrapped up my classic mid-season awards, time now to update the mock that I utilize on my personal blog. Which, by the way, you are welcome to view each time you finished looking through the great stuff here on drafttek.com

I’m sure the current mock I am presenting will cause some moans, groans and/or giggles….but that’s cool, I like hearing, er, reading funny noises and responses to any of my opinions. If you want to blast my picks, by all means, fire away. Even though you know deep in your heart I’m right !

This version of my mock has just the picks without any reasoning or additonal comments, except for my overall #1 draft pick in this mock - which I am sure will make some people feel the need to speak out.

And by all means, do so !

1. Detroit Lions (0-9) – Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

Yes, I know….the Lions have picked WR time and time again, and they have a bunch of other needs. But before thinking this is some big joke, hear me out. And no, it’s no joke.

I am predicting Michael Crabtree will end up as the overall #1 - no matter who is selecting number one in the draft. What’s more, it doesn’t mean Detroit ultimately keeps him, but my bet is Crabtree goes #1 to the Lions if they have the first pick.

Lest one forgets, the Lions also have an additional first round selection from the Cowboys, so they can ultimately get Crabtree & a top offensive tackle in round one.

Or, the Lions could use him the pick and trade down to add more picks in later rounds from a team (like the Seahawks, Bears or Vikings) who are desperately in need of a game-changer at wideout.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (1-8) – Andre Smith, OT, Alabama                                                                             

3. Kansas City Chiefs (2-7) – Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State

4. St. Louis Rams (2-7) – Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi

5. Oakland Raiders (2-7) – Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

6. Seattle Seahawks (2-7) – Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State                                                                       

7. San Francisco 49ers (2-7) – Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech                                                              

8. Cleveland Browns (3-6) – Javon Ringer, RB, Michigan St.                                                                         

9. Houston Texans (3-6) – Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest                                                                        

10. New Orleans Saints (4-5) – Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest                                                                 

11. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5) – Taylor Mays, S, USC

12. San Diego Chargers (4-5) – Everette Brown, DE, FSU

13. Green Bay Packers (4-5) – William Moore, FS, Missouri                                                                            

14. Denver Broncos (5-4) – James Laurinitis, LB, Ohio St.

15. Minnesota Vikings (5-4) – Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma St.

16. Buffalo Bills (5-4) – George Selvie, DE, South Florida                                                                               

17. Miami Dolphins (5-4) – Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida                                                                                

18. New York Jets (6-3) – Rey Maualuga, LB, USC                                                                                          

19. Chicago Bears (5-4) – Eben Britton, OT, Arizona                                                                                       

20. Detroit Lions (0-9) from Dallas - Jason Smith, OT, Baylor                                                                  

21. Baltimore Ravens (6-3) – Brian Cushing, LB, USC

22. Atlanta Falcons (6-3) – Chase Coffman, TE, Missouri                                                                              

23. Arizona Cardinals (6-3) – Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama

24. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) – Myron Rolle, SS, FSU                                                                                 

25. New England Patriots (6-3) – Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois                                                                      

26. Indianapolis Colts (5-4) - Fili Moala, DT, USC

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) –Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri

28. Washington Redskins (6-3) – Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas

29. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) – Duke Robinson, OG, Oklahoma                                                                

30. Philadelphia Eagles (from 7-2 Carolina) – Jared Cook, TE, South Carolina

31. Tennessee Titans (9-0) – Ciron Black, OT, LSU

32. New York Giants (8-1) – Gerald McRath, LB, Southern Mississippi

Drafttek’s Midseason College Football Awards

Michael Schottey-NFL Correspondent/Senior Writer

11/10/08

Mac’s latest NFL Awards article got me thinking. Now, normally I would just blatantly steal his idea and write a new award article (only mine would be right whereas his was ridiculously wrong). Instead, I’ll go my own road. With a few months to go in the college football season, here are my picks for the hardware.

Harlon Hill Award (Div II Player of the Year)

Brad Iciek (QB-Grand Valley State)

Joining a list of GVSU quarterbacks that includes Cullen Finnerty (Denver Broncos) and Curt Anes (Former NFL Europe standout), this Division II QB is only a junior and will win this award one of the next two years. I’m betting on this year—146/223 (65.5%) 29TDs, 3 INTs (198.0 RAT)

Other names to watch: Mike Reilly (QB-C Washington), Jacary Atkinson (QB-Tuskegee)

Walter Payton Award (Div I FCS Player of the Year)

Nathan Brown (QB-Central Arkansas)

This is a two man race in my opinion. Rhett Bomar (yes THAT Rhett Bomar) of Sam Houston State could also very well take this award but head to head Brown won that battle guiding his team to a 48-46 win. By the end of the year Brown will have passed for well over 4000 yards and 40 TDs. I look for him to gain national attention in April being drafted in the 2^nd or 3^rd round. Remember this name…

Other names to watch: Rhett Bomar (QB-Sam Houston State), Amanti Edwards (Appalachian State)

Heisman Trophy Award (Div I FBS Player of the Year)

Graham Harrell (QB-Texas Tech)

As of right now I am very confident in this pick. Most important stat in Harrell’s favor? Three high octane, high publicity, highly watched primetime games against Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma (Sat @ 8PM EST), all of those teams are in the top-10 when Tech played them and if Harrell wins Saturday he locks this thing up. With four games left, Harrell needs just under 600 yards/game to pass Timmy Chang as the all-time leading passer…Chang had almost a full season more than Harrell to do it in.

Other names to watch: Tim Tebow (QB-Florida), Colt McCoy (QB-Texas)

Walter Camp Award (Div I FBS Player of the Year)

Maxwell Award (Div I FBS Player of the Year)

Tim Tebow (QB-Florida)

Quite frankly Tebow is a joy to watch and when the DIV I coaches get together they should take a minute and remember how Tebow dominated many opposite teams at times single-handedly. He is a better passer than you think and the talk of him playing FB at the next level should stop immediately.

Other names to watch: Harrell, McCoy, Michael Crabtree (WR-Texas Tech)

Davey O’Brian Award (National Outstanding Quarterback of the Year)

Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award (National Outstanding Senior QB)

Graham Harrell (Texas Tech)

Doak Walker Award (National Outstanding Runningback)

Javon Ringer (RB-Michigan State)

I’m going to be blunt here. One of the quirks of the Doak Walker is that the player in question needs to be in “good academic standing.” At the end of the year, I hope Ringer is…he does not have the most glowing past in that regard. However, he could not lose with anything he’s doing on the field. The man is a horse; he leads the nation in carries (353), yards (1548), TD (20), and scoring (120).

Other names to watch: Donald Brown (UConn), Vai Taua (Nevada)

Fred Biletnikoff Award (Nation’s Best Receiver)

Michael Crabtree (WR-Texas Tech)

A few years ago Calvin Johnson was labeled the most prototypically gifted wide receiver of our generation—my how time flies. Michael Crabtree is less physically imposing than Johnson but a much better receiver. In my mind he is the love child of Jerry Rice (mental) and Randy Moss (physical). Am I overrating him? Probably, but right now he is +1000 yards and 18 TDs. Other receivers will have better numbers when the season ends but none (save possibly Dez Bryant) against the completions and with the dominance of Crabtree.

Other names to watch: Dez Bryant (OK State), Jarrett Dilliard (Rice)

John Mackey Award (Nation’s Top Tight End)

James Casey (TE-Rice)

There are flashier names out there who may make a bigger splash in the NFL. However, numbers are numbers and only one TE in the nation is top 10 in receiving. Casey is a sophomore at Rice so he won’t be playing on Sundays…yet.

Other names to watch: Chase Coffman (Mizzou), Mark Haefner (Houston)

Vince Lombardi (Best Offensive or Defensive Lineman)

Ted Hendricks Award (Best Defensive End)

Brian Orakpo (DE-Texas)

This is one of the most random awards ever, many of the semi finalists are linebackers even though the actual insignia states “College Lineman of the Year.” I’m a purist. Brian Orakpo is the best defensive lineman in college football. Period. As for the offensive guys? The last O-lineman to win the award was Orlando Pace. Michael Oher and Andre Smith both have good resumes but I don’t expect them to change the trend.

Other names to watch out for: Oher (Ole Miss), Smith (Alabama)

Outland Trophy (Nation’s Best Interior Lineman)

Andre Smith (OT-Alabama)

I’ll come out and say it right now. I believe Michael Oher is the best Offensive Lineman in college football in a long time. Yet, he’s doing it at Ole Miss (5-4) and Smith is going to have the national spotlight for the rest of the season. Smith is nothing to shake a stick at however, he is a dominant blocker who moves around like a 340lbs Gale Sayers.

Other names to watch out for: Oher, Eugene Wilson (OT-Virginia), Duke Robinson (OG-Oklahoma)

Rimington Award (Nation’s Best Center)

Alex Mack (C-California)

I don’t see a race here. Mack (no relation to “secret world of…”) is a bona fide first round prospect with strength and speed to spare. He very well could get moved to guard at the next level but I personally find that to be a mistake that belies a lack of understanding about the Center position. Mack is ridiculously smart (PAC-10 all-academic) and runs the line like Payton Manning runs the huddle.

Other names to watch out for: Jonathan Luigs (Arkansas), Max Unger (Oregon)

Bronco Nagurski Award (Nation’s Top Defensive Player)

Chuck Bednarik Award(Defensive Player of the Year)

Butkus Award (Nation’s Top Linebacker)

Sean Witherspoon (LB-Mizzou)

This probably won’t happen. Missouri doesn’t have enough of a national profile to get this young man the hype one needs to win these awards. Witherspoon averages 11 tackles a game and is one of the best around the ball defenders in the nation. I fully expect these award to go to someone from OSU or USC.

Other names to watch out for: Rey Maualuga (ILB-USC), James Laurinaitis (OLB-OSU), Brian Cushing (OLB-USC)

Jim Thorpe Award (Nation’s Top Defensive Back)

Alphonso Smith (CB-Wake Forest)

Five interceptions so far doesn’t lead the nation, but its close (6). He leads NCAA in passes defended (18) and passes broken up (13). What sets Smith apart, is at 5’9” and 190lbs he is a willing hitter and spends a lot of time in the opposing backfield.

Ray Guy Award (Nation’s Top Punter)

Zoltan Mesko (Michigan)

Lou Groza (Nation’s Top Place Kicker)

Louis Sakoda (Utah)

       ]]> http://blog.drafttek.com/2008/11/11/midseason-college-awards/feed/ Draft Tek Draft Blog http://blog.drafttek.com/2008/11/10/macs-nfl-power-rankings-week-ten/ http://blog.drafttek.com/2008/11/10/macs-nfl-power-rankings-week-ten/#comments Mon, 10 Nov 2008 12:42:25 +0000 Draft Tek Draft Blog http://dtekteam.wordpress.com/?p=543

Rick McGlothlin, Drafttek.com Senior Writer

 1.(1) Tennessee (9-0) - Exceptional job by the Titans to go into the Windy City, not be able to run the ball effectively, and still come out with a big win. Kerry Collins wasn’t great, but he made some key throws to his receivers even though the Bear defense knew it was coming. And the Titan D made it difficult for Grossman to feel comfortable all day, forcing him into some mistakes. Next week it’s a divisional game at Jacksonville.

2.(2) NY Giants (8-1) - On the road at division rival Philadelphia, the defending champs were tested early but overcame a 7-0 deficit to jump back in front and remain ahead through the first half. After trailing in the second half and rallying to take the lead in the 3rd quarter by 3 points, New York thwarted several comeback attempts by the Eagles down the stretch to notch victory #8.

3.(4) Carolina (7-2) - The Panthers battle an Oakland team that put up a seriously brave battle, but Carolina chalks up the “W”. Solid game from DeAngelo Williams while Jake Delhomme threw four picks and still managed to come out on top. The Panther defense put a clamp on the Raider running game, and Oakland went through two backup QB’s in the game.

4. (3) Pittsburgh (6-3) - Extremely tough loss for the Steelers, who had the Colts on the ropes going into halftime, when Big Ben made a Big Mistake. The late first-half interception led to a TD for Indy, and cut the Steeler lead to 17-14 while giving the Colts momentum. In the second half, Big Ben threw two more INT’s, the last one on the last play of the game - a Hail Mary type play that ended up in the arms of a Colt defensive back.

5.(5) Washington (6-3) - Bye week

6.(7) Tampa Bay (6-3) - Bye week

7.(18) Indianapolis (5-4) - Huge win for a team that has had its toughness questioned and relevance challanged thus far in the season. With the playoffs hanging in the balance, Indianapolis did something a Colts team had not done since 1968 - win in Pittsburgh. While Peyton Manning and his receivers were often not on the same page, they did just enough to put points on the board while the much-maligned Colt defense made multiple crucial plays that sealed the victory.

8.(13) New England (6-3) - It wasn’t pretty, but it was a win and that’s all the Patriots need at this juncture. With the AFC East more competitive that it has been in years, New England basically came back and held serve after the loss last week in Indy. Matt Casell didn’t light it up, but he didn’t make any major mistakes to lose the game.

9.(6) Philadelphia (5-4) - The Eagles had some odd play-calling in the final drive before being stopped short of a first down, losing to the division leading Giants, 36-31. While Donovan McNabb had a stellar evening, throwing for 3 TD’s and contributing some key runs, Michael Westbrook was held in check by the New York defense. Philly now goes to meet the Bengals next week, while slipping into a last place tie with Dallas, and a game behind Washington in the NFC East.

10. (11) Arizona (6-3) - Two interceptions returned for TD’s didn’t count, but the third time was the charm as a pick late in the 4th quarter resulted in 1st and goal from the 49er 6 yard line, leading to a go-ahead TD pass to Anquan Boldin. But the Cardinals almost had a repeat of the Monday Night meltdown two years ago against the Bears, but just managed to hang on with a wild, wild ending and victory. The win props the Cards up as a legitimate playoff power, but it was a little too close for comfort. Arizona also has to go back to the drawing board as it relates to silly penalties - which almost cost them the game.

11.(14) Atlanta (6-3) - Hotlanta stays hot, though it got a little uncomfortable with under 10 minutes to go in the game before holding off New Orleans to move to 6-3 on the year. Matt Ryan had another effective game, and Michael Turner led the Falcon rushing attack. And the Atlanta defense forced Drew Brees into 3 picks, including a clinching pick-6 late to seal it. Next up is a home game vs the Broncos.

12.(19) Baltimore (6-3) Don’t look now but Joe Flacco is gaining confidence and the Ravens are putting some serious points on the board….today helped along by 4 INT’s by the Houston QB. But Flacco is emerging as another rookie of the year candidate, and Willis McGahee had a good day running the ball for the Ravens. The Bmore defense just kept the Texans in check all day and watched as the offense moved the ball nearly everytime it had the chance. I can’t recall the Ravens ever ending up with 41 points in a game. Ever. The Ravens are now tied for first in the AFC North, but have some tough games coming up: At the Giants, home to Philly, at division foe Cincy and then home to the Redskins.

13.(9) Dallas (5-4) - Bye week

14.(12) Chicago (5-4) - Lovie Smith and the Bears gambled. Defensively they stacked the box against the run and dared Kerry Collins to beat them. That resulted in extremely low rushing totals, but a season high for Kerry Collins in passing. The return of Rex Grossman as a starter for the Bears began well enough, but after the first quarter score, it was mostly downhill from there. The lone exception was Matt Forte, who along with the offensive line, pretty much kept them in the game.

15.(15) NY Jets (6-3) - Is New York starting to fire on all cylinders? Well, it was against the St. Louis Rams, so it remains to be seen if it can carry over to other games. One thing is for sure and that is they look a lot more comfortable offensively than they have all season. Thomas Jones and Brett Favre guided the Jets to 47 points - 40 in the first half - and the defense shutdown the Ram offense.

16.(20) Miami (5-4) - Shouldn’t have been this close, but when games are nailbiters, they’re the kinds of games that allow a young team to get the experience needed for growth. They were tested at various points and didn’t panic when pressed. The defense held just enough to preserve the win, especially on the decisive two-point conversion attempt by Seattle. The Dolphins travel to New England on Thursday for a division rematch.

17.(8) Buffalo (5-4) Fell short against a divisional opponent that would have marked a huge momentum building turning point this season. Instead, they drop their 3rd in a row overall, and all to divisional opponents. They need to string some wins together and hope for a chance to return the favor to Miami, New York and New England the last few weeks of the season.

18.(22) Minnesota (5-4) - The Vikings finally win a close one and the game winning drive was led by a seriously deteremined Adrian Peterson. After getting stopped on a 4th and 1 attempt earlier, the former Oklahoma Sooner wanted the ball and got it the majority of the drive, ending up stretching the ball across the goal line for the go-ahead score. Mason Crosby’s missed field goal put the Vikings in a first place tie with the Bears.

19.(14) Green Bay (4-5) - Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant and the Packers defense had the chance to pull off a close one in the Metrodome, only to see a 52 yard kick go wide-right by Mason Crosby at the end. The Packers had only 184 net yards offensively, but the Green Bay defense could not keep Peterson from running all over…even after Gus Frerotte gave up 3 interceptions. This one will certainly come back to haunt the Packers.

20.(22) Denver (5-4) - Jay Cutler put on a show, while homegrown sensation Brady Quinn did everything right in his Cleveland debut, as the Broncos stormed back to beat Cleveland. Over 400 yards passing for Cutler led Denver to the win. The Broncos certainly received plenty of help from the Cleveland Browns in terms of mistakes and blown opportunities.

With running backs dropping like flies in Denver of late, it was up to Cutler and the passing attack, along with a surprise of solid runs by rookie running back Harris to keep Cleveland guessing. Cutler sliced and diced the Browns for the big yardage, and especially stunned Cleveland with a 90 yard TD toss.

21.(18) San Diego (4-5) - The Chargers were facing the cruelest of all losses at home against Kansas City, but the 2 point-after-conversion play was stopped and San Diego kept from stumbling with a 21-19 victory over the Chiefs. They should be very thankful they are playing in the AFC West and still have a shot at a division title. However, they travel next to Pittsburgh for a tough road game.

22.(24) Jacksonville (4-5) - It’s never a bad thing to come off a tough week and face the Detroit Lions, and the Jaguars took out a lot of frustration on Detroit. The running game also reappeared for Jacksonville, just in time for divisional showdown with the Titans next week.

23.(16) New Orleans (4-5) - 521 total yards of offense. However, dropped passes early in the game, combined with a weak secondary helped the Saints dig a hole. It proved too big a hole to climb out of and forced the Saints to air it out most of the game. Drew Brees threw for over 400 yards and brought the Saints back to the verge of a tie - twice - both times ending up being picked. Unless Carolina, Atlanta and Tampa Bay all collapse down the road, it looks like the playoffs are out of reach.

24.(24) Houston (3-6) - Either Baltimore’s offense is getting better in rapid fashion, or the Texan defense is faltering steadily. Maybe it was the 4 interceptions that led to a good amount of those points, so lets not lay it all on the defense. Houston allowed the Ravens to rack up 41 points and 330+ total yards while holding the Texans to just

25.(25) Cleveland (3-6) - Brady Quinn almost pulled off the perfect ending. Trailing by 4 with just over a minute to go in the game, Quinn had to lead his team downfield for a score. Enter “the soldier”, Kellen Winslow Jr., who might just want to fade away……allowing a pass to go right through his hands on 4th and 1 with :50 seconds left. That missed reception, along with his fumble that allowed Denver to cut the lead to 3, helped to wipe out a 10 point lead for Cleveland.

The Browns now find themselves basically out of a playoff spot with a 3 and 6 record, and probably watching the the final few games of the Romeo Crennel era as this marked the second week in a row that Cleveland has watched a two touchdown lead evaporate and allow the opposition to prevail.

26.(26) San Francisco (2-7) - Wild, wild finish and an odd play at the very end running inside with a backup running back in such a critical situation on 3rd down. I wonder why the 49ers didn’t spike it once more and design a play-action pass. Frank Gore’s stumble short of the goal line was excruciating for San Fran fans. Coach Singletary wanted a tough, hard-nosed offense that can run the ball. It didn’t look as if they are at that point quite yet.

27.(29) Seattle (2-7) - Great effort by a team that is out of the playoff hunt and got off to a horrible start to the season with a rash of injuries. If it weren’t for a Koren Robinson dropped pass in the endzone (Really? K-Rob dropped a pass?) the Seahawks may have pulled off a surprising win in Miami. They almost tied it at the end but a 2-point conversion was knocked down late.

28.(27) Oakland (2-7) - Kinda tough to win with Andrew Walter and Marcus Tuiasosopo as your QB’s, but that’s what Oakland tried to do. And they played a pretty good game considering they went up against a tough Carolina defense. But the offense could never really mount anything and the defense picked the Panthers four times - all for naught.

29.(28) St. Louis (2-7) - That was awfully ugly out there against the Jets. I know they were up against future Hall of Famer Brett Favre, but ummm, what the heck was that? Jim Haslett is now looking at the word “interim” and beginning to realize it might be exactly how it will end.

30.(29) Kansas City (1-8) - Hey there Chief fans, I’m not so sure you don’t have your future QB in Tyler Thigpen. What a great game for a guy who was completely unknown around the league just a month or so ago. And kudos to coach Herm Edwards for going for two points to win the game. It’s another loss, but this young team played well on the road.

31.(31) Cincy (1-8) - Bye week

32.(30) Detroit (0-9) I gave the Lions credit last week for playing the Bears tough and not giving up. Today, they started out decent against Jacksonville and steadily got worse. Culpepper’s short stint at QB proved to him that you just can’t step back into the league and play immediately.

By Rick McGlothlin, Drafttek.com Senior Writer

His last three games against top opponents have been nothing short of perfection. Over 1,200 yards passing and a dozen touchdowns, while throwing no interceptions. Incredibly, this guy has not had much publicity in terms of being a Heisman candidate.  In the most recent game vs Oklahoma State, he only threw for 455+ yards and 6 touchdowns.

If he did have Heisman props before now, then add me to them as an excited Johnny-come-lately. What more can you ask of a guy than what Graham Harrell has done for his ballclub? Now at 10-0 on the season, the Red Raiders are nipping at the heels of Alabama for the number one ranking and a national championship. If the season ended today, imagine the game between Alabama and Texas Tech! John Parker Wilson is no slouch either, but has fewer weapons to throw the ball - but does have a solid runner in the backfield - and a pretty good Crimson Tide defense.

So while I nominate Harrell for the Heisman, I will also push for Alabama and Texas Tech to remain undefeated the rest of the way out, and meet for the National Championship. Even though I believe a playoff system is long overdue in NCAA football, this would be one matchup that no one could argue with if both teams do remain undefeated, which will be extremely tough for both to do.

(The only better matchup might be Texas Tech vs Florida….wow, I think that one would be great too.)

As for the Heisman, I think that at this point it is mainly a battle of QB’s, with Harrell, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy and Parker-Wilson (in that order) along with wideout Michael Crabtree and running back Javon Ringer.  Outside of those gentlemen, the pickings are a bit slim.

So as long as Graham Harrell can win out, I think he is a lock for the Heisman. Funny thing is, the same thing could be applied to all the other QB’s as well.

Draft Tek’s NFL Draft computer simulation model now enters its 4th season.  The 2009 version is still under construction; we’re still employing the 2008 logic to generate the Consensus Mock Drafts that are currently up on the web site.

One of the chief complaints that we’ve heard ever since year 1 involves 3-4 vs. 4-3 players: Nose Tackles, Pass-rush linebackers, etc..  The program needs a means of categorizing DL players, identifying teams by their base defenses, and assigning as such.  The goal of Draft Tek programmers is to integrate this logic into the 2009 model, effective at the completion of this regular NFL season.

This will involve an expansion of player definitions.   Intead of DT, DE and OLB; we’ll see 34DT, 43DT, 34DE, 43DE, 34OLB and 43OLB.    And we’ll see some of the target players taking on dual designations.  

In an effort to gain clarity for programming purposes, the following questions were posed to our Draft Tek Football Analysts:

1) A 4-3 DE may or may not qualify as a 3-4 OLB - depends upon
size/speed. Is this an accurate assessment??
2) A 4-3 DT may or may not be suitable for a NT position (3-4 DT) -
depends upon player makeup. - Correct?
3) Consider the opposite - A Nose Tackle is acceptable for a 4-3 DT.
Yes/No?

4) 4-3 OLB’s may or may not be suitable as 3-4 OLB’s.  Is this a case by case designation?

5) A player listed as a DE implicitly specifies a 4-3 DE, is this
correct??
6) A 3-4 DE is basically a DT, is this correct? Or is there no
particular difference between a 3-4 and a 4-3 DE?

This set of responses from Joe Mays (Dolphins, Eagles Analyst):
1)  You’re absolutely right.  4-3 DEs can be anywhere from 250-295 lbs.
However, you have to have the right speed and agility to convert to a 3-4
OLB.  Usually the best converted DEs weigh between 250-275.  But obviously
there can be exceptions.

2) To be a 3-4 NT you MUST be big.  Most 3-4 NTs are 310+ lbs. (again there
are exceptions, i.e. lots of strength makes up for less weight).  Generally
if you are 340lbs. or more, only teams that run a 3-4 will draft/sign you.
That much weight usually means you aren’t fast enough to play 4-3 DT.

3) Yes, NTs can be 4-3 DTs, but again they must possess the right amount of
speed and quickness.  Being so early we don’t have the speed test results.
I’d use weight as a governing factor right now.  Any DTs between 290-310lbs
would be a 4-3 DT.  310-335 could be 4-3 DT or 3-4 NT.  335+ would be
strictly 3-4 NT, to me at least.

4) Correct again.  This also depends on size.  3-4 ILBs are usually 240-260
lbs and 3-4 OLBs are generally 260-280 lbs.  LBs smaller than 235 lbs.
generally do not fit the 3-4 scheme (why the Jets got rid of Vilma).

5) Yes, a DE designation means 4-3 DE.

6) Generally, a 3-4 DE is a converted 4-3 DT.  3-4 DEs usually weight
285-310lbs.  4-3 DEs are smaller, like 250-285lbs.  They rely on speed and
are more for pass rushing.  In a 3-4, DEs are bigger and stronger and used
to stop the run.  The rush comes from the OLBs, generally.

So the basic differences are size and speed.  For now, since we don’t have
their speed test results, I’d use a weight as a good delimeter.

Rick McGlothlin, Drafttek.com Senior Writer

As the NFL prepares to venture into the second half of the season, I thought I would post some of my mid-season award winners for you to think about and debate. With the shift in power in the AFC, along with the surprise teams around the entire NFL making their presence felt, many obvious names will be left off the awards list in favor of some new ones.

Presently I have the Titans on top of the NFL with an undefeated record, followed by the Giants, Steelers and Carolina. That would be some quality conference championship games if they took those four today and placed them into the final conference game of the year. Of those four teams, I have a sneaking suspicion that two of those will fall out prior to the January matchups because it always seems to turn out that way.

So with all that in mind, here are my selections for the unknown (and surely unhearalded) Mac’s Mid-Year Awards.

Rookie 

AFC Chris Johnson, Tennessee

NFC (tie) Matt Forte, Chicago & Matt Ryan, Atlanta

MVP 

AFC - Chris Johnson, Tennessee

NFC - (tie) Drew Brees, New Orleans & Michael Westbrook, Philadelphia

 Coach 

AFC - Tony Sparano, Miami

NFC - Mike Smith, Atlanta

Defense 

AFC - (tie) Albert Haynesworth, Tennessee & Kris Jenkins, N.Y. Jets

NFC - Justin Tuck, N.Y. Giants

Offense 

AFC - Andre Johnson, Houston

NFC - Michael Turner, Atlanta

Biggest Surprise 

AFC - Miami Dolphins

NFC - Atlanta Falcons

Biggest Disappointment 

AFC - San Diego & Indianapolis

NFC - Dallas

Comeback Player of the Year 

AFC - Kerry Collins, Tennessee

NFC - Kyle Orton, Chicago

You’ve likely noticed the new look website.  Prior to today, the site was built and managed in-house.  Unfortunately our web skills we’re not up to speed with our programming abilities and world-class football expertise.    The new design is tighter and more professional.  But more importantly, the page pop right up.  In the past page loads have at times been excruciatingly slow as we we’re frequently reminded of.  

What was formerly referred to as our “Primary Simulation” is now called the “Consensus Mock Draft”.  The consensus part reflects the team needs input provided by our staff of 20 team specialists.    But the plan now is to reserve use of the word “simulation” solely for our new user interactive tool, the Online Draft Simulator.   Did I mention that its free of charge??  

On to revision 6 of the In-season consensus mock.  The Detroit Lions are the most enigmatic team with respect to the draft.  Barring a Duante Culpepper led second half comeback, the Lions are almost certain to score a top five 5 pick.  And with further deterioration of the Dallas Cowboys v2009 product, Detroit could pick up another selection in the top 20.

Philadelphia OTOH is the other team with two first rounders, owning Carolina’s from a draft day trade.  Both those teams are strong for 2009, and we project that the Eagles will end up with two very late first round selections.

-Warren@Drafttek.com